From May 2024 with Projections Through May 2025

Nationwide home prices, including distressed sales, saw a 4.9% increase in May 2024 compared to May 2023. On a monthly basis, prices rose by 0.6% in May 2024 compared to April 2024. CoreLogic updates these figures with newly available public data to maintain accuracy.

National Price Forecast

According to the CoreLogic HPI Forecast, home prices are expected to increase by 0.7% from May 2024 to June 2024 and rise by 3% year-over-year from May 2024 to May 2025.

Chart 1: Current month-over-month and year-over year U.S. home price growth and projections through May 2025

Detached Home Price Increases Continue to Surpass Attached Homes

In May, U.S. home price gains year-over-year eased slightly to 4.9%, marking the 148th consecutive month of annual growth. The Northeast maintained its lead in annual appreciation, with New Hampshire being the sole state to report a double-digit increase. The disparity in price growth between detached and attached homes grew even larger, likely reflecting homebuyers' continued preference for more personal space for remote work post-pandemic and rising HOA fees driven by maintenance costs.

HPI National and State Maps – May 2024

The CoreLogic HPI offers insights across various market segments, or tiers, which are categorized by property type, price range, sale intervals, loan types (conforming vs. non-conforming), and distressed sales. The data is available at a broad national level down to ZIP Code, including in non-disclosure states.

Nationwide, home prices rose by 4.9% year-over-year in May, with no states experiencing annual declines in home prices. New Hampshire saw the highest annual increase at 12%, while New Jersey and Rhode Island both reported gains of 9.8%.

Chart 2: Year-over-year home price changes by state, May 2024

Top 10 Metros HPI Changes

The CoreLogic HPI offers insights into various market segments, known as tiers, which are categorized by factors such as property type, price range, time between sales, loan types (conforming vs. non-conforming), and distressed sales. Data is available nationally, down to ZIP Code level, including in non-disclosure states. The following highlights home price changes in ten major U.S. metropolitan areas for May, with San Diego leading with the highest annual increase of 9.2%.

Chart 3: Year-over-year home price changes by select metro areas, May 2024

Markets to Watch: Leading Areas at Risk of Home Price Drops

The CoreLogic Market Risk Indicator (MRI), which provides a monthly assessment of housing market health nationwide, forecasts a very high likelihood of home price declines in Palm Bay-Titusville-Melbourne, FL (over 70% probability) over the next year. Gainesville, FL; Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA; Spokane-Spokane Valley, WA; and North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL are also identified as having a very high risk of price decreases.

Chart 4: Top five U.S. markets at risk of annual price declines, May 2024

Summary

The CoreLogic HPI offers extensive and detailed coverage, including data from non-disclosure states. Built from top-tier real estate public records, servicing, and securities databases, the index incorporates over 40 years of repeat-sales transaction data, all meticulously assessed and normalized.

Both the CoreLogic HPI and its forecasts deliver comprehensive market evaluations based on various factors such as property type, price range, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming), and distressed sales. This helps clients track price movements in specific market segments.

The index is updated monthly and provides the fastest home-price valuation information in the industry, with complete datasets available five weeks after the end of each month. Each month, the index is refreshed, offering updated and precise indications of home price trends.

Methodology

The CoreLogic HPI™ leverages leading public records, servicing, and securities real estate databases, incorporating over 40 years of repeat-sales transactions to analyze home price trends. Typically released on the first Tuesday of each month with a five-week delay, the CoreLogic HPI provides early insights into home price trends across market segments and the "Single-Family Combined" tier, which includes all sales of single-family attached and detached properties. The indices are revised with each release to better signal market turning points. Broad national coverage is available, extending down to ZIP Code level, including non-disclosure states.

The CoreLogic HPI Forecasts™ use a two-stage, error-correction econometric model that accounts for both long-term equilibrium home prices and short-term fluctuations due to market momentum, mean-reversion, and external economic shocks, such as changes in the unemployment rate. The forecasts, which extend 30 years ahead, project CoreLogic HPI levels for the "Single-Family Combined" tier and the "Single-Family Combined Excluding Distressed Sales" tier. Complementing these forecasts, Stress-Testing Scenarios align with Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) national scenarios to predict home prices under baseline, adverse, and severely adverse conditions over five years, at state, metropolitan area, and ZIP Code levels. The forecast accuracy includes a 95% statistical confidence interval with a ±2% margin of error.

About Market Risk Indicator

Market Risk Indicators are a subscription-based analytical tool offering monthly updates on the health of housing markets nationwide. CoreLogic data scientists use advanced analytics and comprehensive economic and housing data to evaluate the risk of a housing bubble burst in 392 major metros and all 50 states. This multi-phase regression model provides a probability score (1 to 100) for two scenarios per metro: a price reduction greater than 10% and a price reduction of 10% or less. Higher scores indicate a higher risk of price decline.

Source: CoreLogic

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About CoreLogic

CoreLogic is a leading provider of property insights and innovative solutions, dedicated to transforming the property industry with a focus on people. By leveraging its network, scale, connectivity, and technology, CoreLogic aims to deliver faster, smarter, and more human-centered experiences that build stronger relationships, enhance businesses, and foster a more resilient society. For more information, visit www.corelogic.com.

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